The erosion of the Labour-Conservative duopoly is already having a huge impact on those working in political advocacy, with public affairs professionals having to learn how to better interact with a broader range of MPs.
By Mario Creatura
The tectonic plates beneath our political world have, for some years now, been slowly shifting in unconventional ways - and that’s having a transformative impact on all who practise government relations.
Check your history books, and you would rightly assume that Labour exists primarily as the socially progressive, larger state, higher tax political party that seeks much greater centralised investment in public services. On the other side of the divide, Conservatives are expected to champion more culturally conservative policies, advocate for lower taxation, and a more streamlined state, resulting in reduced government support for services.
From Attlee to Corbyn, Disraeli to Sunak, those broad party brands have remained reasonably consistent - though naturally bending and flexing to suit the political realities of the time. It’s a status quo that has served our two dominant political parties very well: reliable definitions make it easier for the electorate to remain brand loyal, creating the optimum conditions for political predictability.
Those traditional narratives are now changing rapidly, the erosion of the Labour-Conservative duopoly brought on by the rise of Reform UK and increased voter volatility. We can all identify reasons why. Brexit, immigration, the spiralling cost of living, poorly run public services and the failing social contract - all have contributed to the breaking of traditional voting patterns, fuelled by voters desperate for change. As a consequence, our two dominant centrist political parties are in the midst of an identity crisis. In this chaotic context, what values do they stand for; what demographics are they seeking to represent; and therefore what policies are being shaped by their evolving philosophies? In short: how can they win elections in a fragmented political climate?
These key questions are informed by the political reality. Keir Starmer’s 2024 landslide was won with an incredibly small share of the vote, even the gentlest swing away from Labour at the next general election could see many hundreds of his MPs lose their seats. The Conservatives, still diagnosing the route back from their historic worst performance, have yet to credibly position themselves as an alternative government in the minds of the electorate. All of which creates conditions ripe for smaller parties to thrive. Reform UK took hundreds of councillors mainly from the Conservatives earlier in May, and their consistent lead in the national opinion polls indicate a dramatic shift in voter priorities. The Liberal Democrats gained the most constituencies in their modern history in 2024, with even the Greens doubling their vote share in the last year.
Politico’s Poll of Polls puts Reform UK at 29%, Labour down to 22% and the Conservatives on 18%. The Liberal Democrats and Greens have been consistently polling at around 15% and 9% respectively. That means that since the General Election Labour are down 12 points, Conservatives are down six, allowing Reform, the Lib Dems and the Greens to pick up that slack - with Reform alone up an astonishing 15 points.
That context of fragmentation is having a very real impact on what Labour and the Conservatives stand for. A recent longitudinal study by some of the brightest political scientists, revealed that the Conservative party’s electoral coalition over the last half decade has moved to the left economically and in a more socially authoritarian direction; while the Labour party’s voters have moved to the right economically and in a socially liberal direction.
This completely upends old political expectations, and means that Labour voters are more likely now to want lower taxes and a smaller state with Conservative voters tending to seek greater centralised investment in public services and a more authoritarian social policy - territory that Reform are seeking to occupy.
Nigel Farage has consciously chosen to shift his party’s focus from its traditional immigration stance to economic issues, targeting working-class Labour voters. In recent weeks he’s praised trade unions, advocated reindustrialisation and pledged to remove the two-child benefit cap. Farage’s strategic pivot to left-leaning economic policies, and talking tough on social matters, directly aligns with the realignment underway.
Labour and the Conservatives are wrestling with the dilemma of how to respond. Should Starmer abandon his fragile left-leaning coalition, allowing the Greens and Liberal Democrats to cannibalise his base, or should he attempt to hold on to a broad coalition of voters including the socially more authoritarian working class communities allured by Reform? Should Kemi Badenoch seek to ‘unite the right’ in an attempt to solidify her core vote or, being unlikely to succeed at out-Reforming Reform, should the Conservatives aim to attract back the Liberal Democrat-tempted centrist electors preferred by David Cameron? Both leaders could seek to attempt both, the danger of riding two different horses at once is the risk of falling and being trampled.
How should the public affairs industry respond?
This evolving political reality is already having a huge impact on those of us working in political advocacy, complicating traditional strategies for engagement.
With a potential five-party system here to stay, public affairs professionals must diversify our stakeholder mapping to proactively interact with a broader range of MPs, including Reform UK’s populist voices and Green party progressives, alongside traditional Labour and Conservative figures.
A fragmented system creates the greater possibility of narrow parliamentary majorities and coalition risks (for example, Labour potentially needing Liberal Democrat or SNP support). As one of Theresa May’s former special advisers, I know from lived experience how that can create unpredictable policy outcomes. Those in consultancy will need to support clients with agile advocacy to navigate issues like tax reforms or ESG regulations, while those working in-house will need to develop consistent and long-term relationships with a diverse political audience.
Only by building long-term alliances across parties to hedge against coalition governments or unofficial partnerships, can potential storms be weathered. For that to happen, any public affairs professional should understand the advocacy pyramid - how to take stakeholders from ignorance, through to familiarity, all the way to becoming an authentic and passionate champion for your interests. That takes time, and targeted engagement to be successful - but it’ll be worth its weight in gold to protect organisational interests.
Rising populism seen in Europe as well as in the UK, and progressive counter-movements will demand tailored, bespoke messaging for disparate stakeholder groups. Understanding how these polarised narratives take off and take hold, and how to respond to protect corporate reputation and commercial interests, will be crucial. Data-driven campaigns, investing in understanding how content is digested by target audiences, is the only way to cut through the noise.
Digital precision will become all the more important, leveraging social media analytics to target niche voter and policy groups. As part of this, public affairs professionals should prioritise getting to grips with compelling, creative storytelling as a core lobbying tactic as quickly as possible.
What is true of our national politics is also true locally. Labour’s push to reorganise local authorities, continuing the Conservative drive for more regional mayoralties, will increasingly disperse decision-making around the country and away from Westminster. Integrating corporate campaigns locally as well as nationally will entail getting to grips with the different layers of local government. From newly elected Reform mayor Andrea Jenkyns in Greater Lincolnshire, to Labour’s Andy Burnham in Manchester and Conservative Ben Houchen in Tees Valley - local and regional governments will become increasingly important over the coming decade as they grow in power and influence.
Each of these steps relies on proactivity, familiarity and deep comprehension of the rapidly changing priorities and positions of our political parties - as a result, when developing campaign metrics we should always seek to anticipate the populist or progressive backlash to our corporate priorities. Proactive risk management, stress-testing policies for public and regulatory scrutiny, in this fragile context, will be all the more necessary.
To not seek to understand the political realignment taking place could open the organisations we represent to unreasonable risk - the cost of not evolving our professional practices is too great. It has created a more volatile political environment, with businesses needing to be more responsive and adaptable in their public affairs strategies.
Whether internal or agency-based, strategically investing in long-term public affairs grounded in the reality of our political context has never been more important.
This article first appeared in Influence Magazine on 30th May 2025.
Photo by cottonbro studio from Pexels.
